Monday, 10 October 2011

(BN) Dexia Restructuring Plan Backed by France, Belgium as Bank’s Board Meets

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Dexia Agreement Reached by France, Belgium as Bank's Board Meets

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- France and Belgium reached an accord on Dexia SA as the lender's board meets to approve the proposals, paving the way for a dismantling of the French- Belgian bank.

"The suggested solution, which is also the result of intense consultations with all partners involved, will be submitted to Dexia's board of directors for approval," Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme and French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said in a joint statement today. Details weren't disclosed.

Dexia's board was due to begin meeting at 3 p.m. in Brussels. While France and Belgium rushed to protect their local units, they wrestled over responsibility for assets hit by the crisis that caused the bank's short-term funding to evaporate. Dexia's troubled assets are being folded into a "bad bank" and could amount to as much as 190 billion euros ($254 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on company reports.

Rescuing Dexia -- the first victim of the debt crisis at the core of Europe -- has become critical to preventing contagion in the region's banking industry. Dexia's balance sheet, with total assets of about 518 billion euros at the end of June, is about the size of the entire banking system in Greece and larger than the combined assets of financial institutions bailed out in Ireland in the last 2 1/2 years.

Not 'Isolated Problem'

"Dexia is not an isolated problem," said Cor Kluis, an Utrecht, Netherlands-based analyst at Rabobank International who rates Dexia "reduce." "The question for all investors in Europe is how politicians are going to handle this, and what they want to see is a coordinated and professional solution. That would be a good opportunity to restore calm."

Paris- and Brussels-based Dexia has retail branch networks in two European Union founding nations -- Belgium and Luxembourg -- and is a former world leader in municipal lending.

The 18-member board, equally split between France and Belgium, may review a plan under which Dexia would set up a bad bank for its troubled assets, hive off its French municipal loan book into a venture with state-owned La Banque Postale and Caisse des Depots et Consignations, and seek buyers for units such as its Belgian bank, Denizbank AS of Turkey and its asset- management division.

The board meeting is the third in less than a month, after those on Sept. 27 and Oct. 3. Among sticking points for Belgium and France have been which assets to put in the bad bank and what share of borrowings each government should guarantee.

'Complex' Situation

"The situation is more complex than one where you have one bank, one country, one regulator," said Kluis.

French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche reported today that France and Belgium may have agreed on splitting the burden of Dexia's bad bank, which will hold 120 billion euros of risky U.S., Italian, Spanish, and Belgium loans. Belgium and France may guarantee 60 percent and 40 percent, respectively, of the refinancing of these loans, the newspaper said, without saying where it obtained the information. Proceeds of the sale of Dexia's profitable assets such as its Belgian retail bank will go to the bad bank to mitigate its losses, the newspaper said.

Separately, CDC will take 74 billion euros of other loans to local governments, of which 10 billion euros are considered "risky," and France will assume part of the potential losses in the future, the newspaper said.

Stress Tests

Dexia dropped 17 percent in Brussels on Oct. 6 before being suspended, and will resume trading tomorrow. The stock fell 42 percent last week on concern that the breakup will leave shareholders with little of value. It has plunged more than 90 percent since a 2008 bailout.

"Once you go on this road, it won't end well for shareholders," said Kluis. "Governments aren't there to save shareholders."

Standard & Poor's on Oct. 6 downgraded the credit ratings on three units, Dexia Credit Local, Dexia Bank and Dexia Banque Internationale a Luxembourg, citing the group's limited access to wholesale funding markets. The ratings are on credit watch with "developing implications," S&P said.

France and Belgium are coming to Dexia's rescue three months after it got a clean bill of health in European Union stress tests, and three years after they providing capital to save the company during the 2008 credit crunch.

In 2008, after injecting 6 billion euros, the governments gave Dexia guarantees of as much as 150 billion euros. Belgium covered 60.5 percent of the guarantees, France 36.5 percent and Luxembourg 3 percent.

Ratings at Risk

Belgium's Aa1 local- and foreign-currency ratings were placed under review for a downgrade by Moody's Investors Service because of rising funding risks for euro-area nations with high levels of debt and additional bank support measures that are likely to be needed.

The review will focus on the vulnerabilities of Belgian public debt in the current euro-area sovereign crisis and potential costs and contingent liabilities that the government may incur in supporting Dexia, Moody's said in a statement on Oct. 7. Moody's will also assess how the risks for the growth outlook of the economy and the government's fiscal and economic plans may impact the country's debt trajectory.

A large chunk of the troubled assets are on the balance sheet of Dexia Credit Local, a French unit. Dexia Credit Local carries most of the bank's 95 billion-euro bond portfolio, which includes 21 billion euros of Greek, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Irish sovereign debt. Dexia's municipal lending units in Italy and Spain, which it agreed to dispose of to win European Commission approval for its 2008 bailout, are also on the French unit's balance sheet.

Local Units

"The fair distribution of the burden is a very sensitive and crucial element in the negotiations," Leterme said on RTL radio on Oct. 6. "To save Dexia, we need a fair division of responsibility."

Belgium plans to nationalize Dexia Bank Belgium NV, Leterme told labor unions on Oct. 7, according to ACV-CSC, a workers' union. Leterme has said he'll do whatever it takes to safeguard the bank.

Dexia said on Oct. 6 that an investor is interested in its profitable retail and private banking unit in Luxembourg. Belgian daily L'Echo reported that a Qatari sovereign wealth fund was in discussions to buy the unit, Dexia Banque Internationale a Luxembourg, for 900 million euros, without saying where it got the information.

That announcement set off concern that Dexia's most valuable assets will be sold at fire-sale prices to international buyers in response to a temporary funding squeeze.

Groep Arco, Dexia's second-biggest Belgian shareholder, said on Oct. 6 that it "opposes a forced sale of good units of the group at very low prices to foreign entities."

In France, state-owned CDC and La Banque Postale may join with Dexia to create a new company to take over the French municipal lending arm, according to a statement on Oct. 6 from a postal union, whose representatives attended a board meeting where the plan was presented. Paris-based La Poste, the parent of Banque Postale, declined to comment, as did CDC and Dexia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Benedetti-Valentini in Paris at fabiobv@bloomberg.net Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Frank Connelly at fconnelly@bloomberg.net

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Sunday, 9 October 2011

(BN) U.S. Stocks Advance on European Debt Optimism, Improving Economic Data

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

U.S. Stocks Advance on European Debt Optimism, Economic Data

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose this week, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index up from the threshold of a bear market, amid optimism European leaders will tame the region's debt crisis and after American economic data improved.

Equities fell yesterday after Fitch Ratings cut Italy and Spain's debt ratings, overshadowing faster-than-estimated U.S. job growth. Raw-material producers in the S&P 500 surged 6.2 percent this week, the most among 10 groups, while energy stocks and companies reliant on discretionary consumer spending climbed more than 3.4 percent. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. jumped at least 7.4 percent, leading gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The S&P 500 advanced 2.1 percent to 1,155.46, breaking a two-week losing streak. It surged 6 percent between Oct. 3 and Oct. 6, the biggest three-day rally since August. The Dow rose 189.74 points, or 1.7 percent, to 11,103.12 this week.

"Improved clarity and certainty that the Europeans are moving towards a solution was the main driver of markets for the week," Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $110 billion in client assets, said in a telephone interview. "Even with the better-than-expected jobs number, the focus is entirely on European policy makers making the correct decisions over the next several weeks."

20% Drop

Stocks rebounded as European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet announced a bond-purchase program to tackle the debt crisis and European Commissioner Olli Rehn said there is an "increasingly shared view" that the region needs a coordinated approach. The S&P 500 closed under 1,100 on Oct. 3 for the first time in more than a year, leaving the gauge within 1 percent of a 20 percent decline since April.

Stocks halted a three-day rally yesterday after Italy and Spain, the euro region's third- and fourth-largest economies, were downgraded by Fitch Ratings on concern they will struggle to improve their finances as Europe's debt crisis intensifies.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent yesterday. It had risen as much as 0.6 percent after American payrolls rose by 103,000 in September, beating the median economist projection of 60,000 in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate stayed at 9.1 percent.

"The jobs numbers were not spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but they offered a little relief that we aren't slipping back into recession," Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees $85 billion, said in a telephone interview. "Unless the economy moves above 1 percent growth rate, earnings are going to come under pressure next year."

Economic Reports

Reports this week showed manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in September as production picked up. The Commerce Department said construction spending in the U.S. rebounded in August, propelled by the biggest jump in state and local government outlays in more than two years.

Companies most-tied to the economy rallied this week, with the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index advancing 4.4 percent. Raw- material producers rallied after the S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities jumped 2.6 percent, rebounding from a 10-month low.

Hewlett-Packard surged 11 percent to $24.88, its biggest one-week rally since March 2009. Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman said the company aims to decide whether to spin off its personal-computer division by the end of October and won't look for big takeover targets in the software industry. Cisco, the largest maker of networking gear, climbed 7.5 percent to $16.66.

F5, Yahoo

F5 Networks Inc. gained the most in the S&P 500, adding 20 percent to $85.01. Jason Ader, an analyst at William Blair & Co., said he expects the software maker to report improved fourth-quarter earnings as demand for its website-performance products increases.

Yahoo! Inc. surged 17 percent to $15.47, the biggest weekly increase since November 2008, amid takeover speculation. Microsoft Corp. isn't anywhere close to making an offer for Yahoo and senior executives of the software maker aren't involved in discussions, two people familiar with the matter said. The shares rose 10 percent on Oct. 5 after Reuters said Microsoft may make an offer.

Monsanto Co. rose 18 percent, the second-biggest S&P 500 gain, to $70.93. The world's largest seed company reported a smaller loss in the fiscal fourth quarter than analysts estimated and said 2012 earnings will rise as much as 16 percent. It was boosted to "overweight" from "neutral" by JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said the company has "a high probability of reporting sharply improved earnings" next year.

Apple, Alcoa

Apple Inc. slipped 3 percent to $369.80 as co-founder and former Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs died a day after the company's iPhone 4S was introduced. The world's most valuable technology company declined for seven straight days through Oct. 4, its longest losing streak since January 2009.

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, added 1.5 percent to $9.71. It will become the first Dow company to report quarterly results on Oct. 11. Third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to have grown 12 percent, according to average analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, also known as VIX, slumped 16 percent to 36.20 after advancing the prior two weeks. The gauge of S&P 500 options prices jumped a record 160 percent in the third quarter.

"We have the macroeconomic overhang from Europe, but the data from the U.S. is coming in a little better, so that's the battle ground," Donald Selkin, New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., which manages about $3 billion, said in a telephone interview. "We're going to muddle along until we get the third-quarter earnings reports for more insight."

To contact the reporters on this story: Kaitlyn Kiernan in New York at kkiernan2@bloomberg.net Inyoung Hwang in New York at ihwang7@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

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(BN) Euro Drops Versus Yen for Sixth Week as Region’s Debt Crisis Damps Demand

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Euro Drops Versus Yen for 6th Week as Debt Crisis Damps Demand

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The euro weakened against the yen for a sixth straight week, matching a string of losses ended in June 2010, after Italy and Spain saw their ratings cut even after the European Central Bank said it would aid regional banks.

The 17-nation currency slid against most of its major counterparts amid increased speculation Greece may have to default, deepening the region's debt crisis. Higher-yielding currencies, such as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, rose as stocks advanced and after a report showed employment in the world's biggest economy rose more than forecast. Group of 20 finance ministers meet in Paris Oct. 14-15 before a G-20 summit in Cannes in November.

"The U.S. dollar has some legs to gain against the euro going into the end of the year," said John Doyle, a strategist in Washington at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. "It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when Greece is going to default, and that's going to weigh on the common currency."

The euro dropped 0.5 percent to 102.66 yen this week and reached 100.76 yen Oct. 4, the weakest level since June 2001. The common currency fell 0.1 percent to $1.3378. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 76.73 yen.

Ratings Cuts

Italy's rating was cut to A+ from AA- by Fitch Ratings yesterday and to A2 from Aa2 by Moody's Investors Service earlier this week. Both companies cited concern stemming from the euro region's debt crisis. Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy on Sept. 20 for the first time in five years.

Spain's rating was also reduced yesterday by Fitch, to AA- from AA+. The outlook for Spain and Italy is negative. The ratings company maintained a rating watch negative on Portugal, indicating the nation may still be cut to below investment grade.

"It's a reminder for people that there's still a nice laundry list of issues that they have to get through," said Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the region's economy is facing "intensified downside risks."

The euro gained Oct. 6 after Trichet, announcing a policy decision for the final time, said the ECB will resume covered- bond purchases and reintroduce year-long loans for banks as the sovereign-debt crisis threatens to freeze money markets. Trichet will step down at the end of the month and be succeeded by Italy's Mario Draghi.

ECB Policy

ECB officials left their benchmark rate at 1.5 percent, as forecast by 41 of 52 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Currencies linked to growth rallied against the dollar this week as positive U.S. economic reports diminished concern the recovery is faltering.

Brazil's real rose the most among major currencies, climbing from a more than two-year low of 1.9549 reached Sept. 22. The currency surged 5.7 percent to 1.7715 per dollar.

Mexico's peso added 3.2 percent to 13.4598, rising for the first week in five. Australia's dollar advanced 1.1 percent to 97.68 U.S. cents, touching a one-year low of 93.88 Oct. 4.

"There's a number of emerging-market currencies where you've had very dramatic outflows over the last three to four weeks," said Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research in New York at Nomura Holdings Inc. "Those emerging- market currencies are now retracing at a very fast pace. If we have any stability in the U.S., we can have stability in emerging markets."

U.S. Markets

The S&P 500 Index rose 2.1 percent and the MSCI World index of equities added 2 percent. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials rallied 1.8 percent.

U.S. payrolls climbed by 103,000 workers after a revised 57,000 increase the prior month that was more than originally estimated, Labor Department data showed yesterday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise of 60,000. The jobless rate held at 9.1 percent.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trade partners including the euro and yen, fell 0.1 percent to 78.754.

The pound tumbled against its U.S. counterpart after U.K. policy makers said Oct. 6 they would increase their bond- purchase program by 75 billion pounds ($115 billion). The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for no change. The main rate was maintained at 0.5 percent, as predicted by all 53 economists in a separate survey.

Pound Down

Sterling declined 0.1 percent to $1.5562, and weakened 0.1 percent to 85.97 pence per euro.

Turkey's and Russia's central banks separately intervened in the currency market this week in an effort to prop up their currencies.

The Turkish central bank has sold $1.3 billion for liras this week and offered a further $750 million in a daily auction yesterday. The lira has dropped 16 percent against the dollar this year, making it the second-worst performer among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg after South Africa's rand.

Bank Rossii sold about $6.8 billion and 591 million euros ($796 million) of its foreign-currency reserves in September, the central bank said on its website yesterday.

The ruble dropped 0.5 percent to 32.3443 per dollar, falling for a sixth straight week. It touched 32.8935 on Oct. 4, the weakest since August 2009.

To contact the reporters on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

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Friday, 7 October 2011

Wow! all green figures! Jobs data

Unemployment actually down a little from 9.0935 to 9.0847%

NFP +103K

5 MIN LEFT THE HUGE SEP JOB REPORT

 SEP JOB REPORT

key numbers to watch for 

Total new non-farm payrolls +55K (prior: 0) 

New private payrolls +90K (prior: 17K)  

Unemployment rate 9.1% (prior: 9.1%)  

New manufacturing jobs 0 (prior: -3K) 

Average hourly earnings growth +0.2% (prior: -0.1%)

10 year note is down -.11%.   may be good?

Euro Rumormill Disintegration Begins As Reality Returns: France, Germany Fail To Reach Agreement On EFSF | ZeroHedge

Euro Rumormill Disintegration Begins As Reality Returns: France, Germany Fail To Reach Agreement On EFSF | ZeroHedge:

In our previous post we warned, indirectly through the IMF, that the biggest risk for Europe is the inability to reach consensus over anything from the most complicated, to the simplest matter. As noted previously, one of the main initial drivers of the market surge which has since translated into yet another short covering rally of epic proportions was the belief that Europe can actually come together in agreement over the simplest thing - like its own survival. Alas, it appears even that is not the case. As Bloomberg reports, "Germany and France are at odds over whether the European Financial Stability Facility should have limits on government bond purchases, Handelsblatt reported, citing an unidentified high-ranking European Union diplomat. France doesn’t want to restrict the EFSF on how much of its funds it can use for such purchases, the newspaper said in a preview of an article to appear in tomorrow’s edition. Germany wants to limit the amount EFSF can spend for bonds per country and is also considering whether there should be a time limit for bond purchases, Handelsblatt said." Said otherwise, here comes the latest cause of discord within Europe. Unfortunately, it also means that any rumor, innuendo and speculation that Europe has finally reached a coherent union over its own bailout can be promptly discarded. As if there was ever any doubt in the first place.
From Handelsblatt:
In Berlin and Paris argue about EFSF
Exclusive The euro rescue package to buy bonds from future debts States. But with how much money? France wants to give the fund a free hand - for the rescue could not stay no longer enough to fear Germany.
Brussels is a dispute between Germany and France erupted over the extent to which the euro rescue fund future EFSF may buy government bonds. France wanted to make the EFSF this respect no rules, told the Handelsblatt by a senior EU diplomat. This would theoretically mean that the EFSF could not use its entire volume of funding expended to buy bonds of a single Euro-state.
EFSF has a total of 440 billion euros, has been a part of it, however, scheduled for the loan packages to Ireland and Portugal. The federal government wants to limit the amount used for bond purchases per euro government, it said in Brussels. Think Germany will also share in a time limit on bond purchases.
The purchase of government bonds is one of three new instruments may have on the future of advanced EFSF. The design of these new instruments will be governed by guidelines to deal with the high officials of the euro finance ministers in Brussels at present.The guidelines must then be approved by the Budget Committee of the Bundestag. The German Parliament has made this a condition for agreeing to extended EFSF.
Cue the FT, Liesman, and/or some IMF guy we have never heard of with attempts to deny what is painfully obvious: Europe will never reach a consensus because the ultimate price of a European bailout is the absolutely certain suicide of the currently ruling political class. Alas, none of those bureaucrats wants to (or can) do anything else but "rule"...
And if the IMF advisor is right, Europe has less than a month to prove us wrong.
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